This election, the Senate is one of the many places to watch. While the legislative body holds a slight Republican majority as it stands pre-election, tonight could change it all, and usher in a majority holding for the Democratic party. Tonight’s races are so important because they could mark a shift in the senate majority, so there’s certainly a lot on the line. Currently, there are 35 Senate seats up for grabs. Of those 35, 23 belong to incumbent Republicans and 12 belong to incumbent Democrats. Overwhelmingly, there are more vulnerable Republican seats than there are vulnerable Democrat seats, so tonight, Affinity will be tracking the most vulnerable races from Arizona to North Carolina. This post will be updated live as the night goes on, so be sure to check back as the results from each state come in.
In the Alabama race between Tommy Tuberville (R) and Doug Jones (D), Tuberville is likely to win. The former football coach turned Senate nominee is polling favorably in the state with a 14 point lead on incumbent Jones. Seeing as Jones narrowly won his seat in a 2018 special election, it’s unlikely he’ll maintain his hold onto the seat in the ruby-red state.
UPDATE, 10:13 P.M., EST: The AP called Republican candidate Tommy Tuberville as the winner of Alabama’s Senate seat race. https://twitter.com/_kerikey/status/1323317993221271552?s=20
Alaska is predicted to fall to incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) in his race against Al Gross (I). Sullivan is currently polling with a 3 point lead over Gross in the traditionally Republican state. While the race is close, it’s expected that Sullivan will take the win over Gross tonight.
UPDATE, NOV. 13, 4:23 P.M., EST: The AP has called Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan as the winner of Alaska’s Senate seat race. Independent candidate Al Gross conceded to Sullivan on November 13th.
A key battleground state in tonight’s general election, Arizona faces a tough race between NASA astronaut Mark Kelly (D) and incumbent Martha McSally (R). McSally, who was appointed to fill the Senate seat of Sen. John McCain after his passing in 2018, is trailing 6 points behind Kelly in the polls.
UPDATE: NOV. 4, 3:00 A.M., EST: The AP has called Democratic candidate Mark Kelly the winner of Arizona’s Senate seat race. https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1323459899137904640?s=20
The race between opponent (and former Governor of Colorado) John Hickenlooper (D) and incumbent Cory Gardner (R) favors Hickenlooper by a 9 point lead. Ultimately, Hickenlooper’s popularity is predicted to carry him all the way to the Senate.
UPDATE, 10:13 P.M., EST: The AP has called Democrat John Hickenlooper as the winner of Colorado’s Senate seat race.
Special Election: Georgia
The Senate race in Georgia comes down to 4 main candidates vying for 2 Senate seats: incumbents Kelly Loeffler (R) and David Perdue (R) and their respective opponents, Raphael Warnock (D) and Jon Ossoff (D). In the case of Loeffler’s seat, Warnock is favored to win by upwards of 11 points. Perdue and Ossoff, however, are neck in neck for Georgia’s second seat. This race, in every way, is being viewed as a toss-up, with some polls predicting a slight lead for Perdue and others predicting the same for Ossoff. It really will come down to every last vote.
UPDATE, 11:31 P.M. EST: The AP has announced that Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler and Democrat candidate Raphael Warnock will be moving to a runoff election, scheduled for January 5th, 2021. Joining them in a separate runoff will be Democrat candidate Jon Osoff and Republican incumbent David Perdue.
It's election eve, and Texas and Georgia are legit toss ups.— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 3, 2020
Toss-Up Race: Iowa
Iowa is another state that bears no clear winner in the polls. Both incumbent Joni Ernst (R) and opponent Theresa Greenfield (D) have demonstrated slight leads over the other in a variety of polls, though there is no clear and consistent winner in this race yet. Iowa will be another state to watch tonight.
UPDATE, NOV. 4, 1:34 A.M., EST: The AP has called Republican incumbent Joni Ernst the winner of Iowa’s Senate seat toss-up race. https://twitter.com/GreenfieldIowa/status/1323445775406419970?s=20
It is likely that Dr. Roger Marshall (R) will win Kansas’ up-for-grabs Senate seat from Barbara Bollier (D), a current state senator. Marshall appears to be slightly favored in polls, with a 4-6 point lead demonstrated over Bollier.
UPDATE, 11:31 P.M. EST: The AP has called Republican Dr. Roger Marshall as the winner of Kansas’s competitive Senate seat race.
Toss-Up Race: Maine
In one of the most anticipated toss-up races of the election, incumbent Susan Collins (R) is predicted to lose to Sara Gideon (D). Gideon is predicted to lead by a slim margin of 2-8 points. Gideon’s slight lead stems from the notoriety her opponent, Collins, gained after voting affirmatively to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court back in 2018. Collins’ popularity has since declined dramatically, but again, this race could be anyone’s game.
UPDATE: NOV. 4, 3:00 P.M., EST: The AP has called Republican incumbent Susan Collins as the winner of Maine’s toss-up Senate seat race. https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/1322381552718938112?s=20
Michigan’s incumbent Senator, Gary Peters (D), is favored to win in the race against Republican opponent John James. Peters has consistently been polling 6 points ahead of James, indicating a favored win for him in the Great Lakes State.
UPDATE, NOV. 13, 4:23 P.M., EST: The AP has called Democrat Gary Peters the winner of Michigan’s Senate seat race.
Mississippi is another state to watch tonight. While Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith is polling favorably over her Democrat opponent, Mike Espy, her predicted lead has been as low as 1 point, indicating an unstable race to predict, at the very least.
UPDATE, 11:31 P.M. EST: The AP has called Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith as the winner of this Senate seat race.
Similarly to Mississippi, Montana is a state where the Republican incumbent is predicted to win, but can’t grip a lead by a significant margin. Steve Daines (R) is polling anywhere from 9 points ahead to 1 point below his opponent, Steve Bullock (D). We’ll see how this race shakes out.
UPDATE: NOV. 4, 3:00 A.M., EST: The AP has called Republican incumbent Steve Daines as the winner of Montana’s Senate seat race.
Another one of 2020s most talked-about races, North Carolina’s Thom Tillis (R) and Cal Cunningham (D) are the candidates of a competitive election. Though only by a slim margin of a predicted 3 points, Cunningham is favored to take the incumbent’s seat in North Carolina.
UPDATE, NOV. 13, 4:23 P.M., EST: The AP has called Republican incumbent Thom Tillis the winner of North Carolina’s Senate seat race.
Big-name Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat is on the line in South Carolina. His opponent, Jaime Harrison (D) is trailing behind Graham by a predicted 3 points, though Graham’s waning popularity in the public eye might be the factor that leads to his loss of the election.
UPDATE, 10:13 P.M., EST: The AP has called incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham the winner of South Carolina’s Senate seat race.
Texas is one of the many battleground states to watch in tonight’s general election. Following the trend of wanting to turn Texas blue, M.J. Hegar (D) is polling competitively against incumbent John Cornyn (R). Cornyn, however, is predicted to swing a win, with a lead ranging anywhere from 3 to 10 points.
UPDATE, 10:13 P.M., EST: The AP has called Republican incumbent John Cornyn the winner of Texas’s Senate seat race.
Without Georgia and Texas, Republicans’ red wall is more like a pink curtain https://t.co/pWfVlFzsvB— TIME (@TIME) November 3, 2020
Senate Seat Counter
as of November 13, 4:30 P.M., EST
Number of Republican Seats: 50
Number of Democrat Seats: 46
Number of Seats Still Being Decided: 2
Number of Independent Seats: 2
Image via Matteo Di Maio for Affinity