After the California primary last night, things look bleak for Bernie Sanders.
In fact, many say things look impossible- and they are likely right.
For weeks now, Bernie Sanders has had to admit to the reality he would be unable to clinch the Democratic nomination without the help of super delegates- the unpledged, often elected individuals who can vote for whoever they want regardless of what the popular vote is, or the results of their home state.
But Hillary Clinton has had to accept that reality as well.
Regardless of what the media says, she has not clinched the nomination. We are ending the primaries with a sizable delegate gap in the hundreds; but Clinton cannot claim victory until the superdelegates vote- the math just doesn’t work.
People seem angry, frustrated, or just confused. Why is Bernie Sanders still running? Should he not concede? Endorse Clinton? Unite the party?
The odds are overwhelming: he will not be the nominee or the next President of the United States. So why stay in the race. Here’s a logical, reasonable defence:
First and foremost, he said he would. He promised his millions of supporters, including the independents who were unable to vote for him in the primaries, that he would take it to the July convention. Every candidate is known for something- he is known for his honesty and his determination. This is what his supporters saw in him from the start- a politician with a life time of honesty and the ability to stand behind the unpopular, and an almost (but unfortunately, not completely) consistent voting record as a result. Giving his supporters this last Hurrah may actually help them embrace Clinton in the general- knowing that their candidate stuck it out to the end, and his opponent won fair and square can help qualm the injustice they are feeling, especially considering many important primaries had weird, exclusive regulations (like having to be registered for at least six months prior to Election Day), independents were often unallowed to vote, many of Bernie’s key demographics struggle to actually have time and energy to vote, and the fact voter fraud occurred in a few delegate heavy states.
But most importantly, he is giving the Party an out. They are about to nominate a very, very, very, very weak frontrunner. They are about to elect someone who has a lead on Trump- but only within the “margin of error”, and Trump’s strange, powerful political prowess means he keeps growing and growing. Pundits were sure he would not be the nominee. Then they were sure he would not score enough delegates and a brokered convention would allow another politician to snag the nomination. Now, we know not to underestimate him. He is in fact a legitimate threat. He manages to do something very few politicians can: he manages to be widely disliked across the board but still take in millions of votes.
Hillary Clinton is up for some steep competition.
Part of Trump’s appeal is his ability to discredit the “system”- highlight to desperate voters why the establishment is no longer working for them. Trump has never seemed truly genuine in his convictions about helping America- but he doesn’t need to. He just has to point the fact that other politicians will act like they care, but are just looking for votes and money. Ted Cruz couldn’t break free from #LyinTed. Jeb Bush couldn’t break free from Low Energy Jeb. Can Hillary break from #CrookedHillary?
Regardless of what your personal beliefs are, Clinton is not the most trustworthy candidate according to the American people. The majority of the country and the Party see her as dishonest, inconsistent or corrupt. Maybe it is just the result of decades of GOP smears, or maybe it’s based on legitimate concerns like her corporate donors, inconsistent voting records on key issues like immigration and LGBTQ rights, to her sleazy defence of a guilty pedophile long before her political career took off and her husband’s rape allegations. Donald Trump will be making these attacks- and it’s hard to say how the public will respond.
Worse yet, Trump runs on populism. His campaign is about being a proverbial middle finger to the establishment. Clinton is the establishment. The reality is, somewhere between 20 and 40 percent of Sanders supporters will not vote for Clinton. That isn’t Sanders fault- every voter has their own values. If Hillary has not embodied- and worked against- those values, she is not entitled to your votes. She is a politician. It doesn’t matter if she’s a woman, or that she’s up against Trump- she has to earn every vote just like anyone else. Some Sanders supporters will even vote for Trump.
Do I agree with it? Hell no- Trump has proved himself to be both pure evil and clueless when it comes to the actual responsibilities of Commander in Chief. But I see their perspective, as much as I disagree.
These voters aren’t looking at individual candidates- they’re looking at the two party system as a whole. They blame that system for taking millions of dollars in corporate money, and as a result allowing an unequal economy and impending climate disaster. They blame the system for unfair and restrictive voting regulations, which some go as far to view as fraud and suppression. They blame the system for America’s poor healthcare system and poor education system and poor prison system. They blame the system for its constant support of violence overseas and it’s wasteful use of tax dollars. They want to vote for a person they see as “outside” this system. Do I agree with that person should be Trump? Not in a thousand years (and there may not be another thousand years if he’s in charge), but no one is obligated to support a system that doesn’t support them. If they truly feel our political establishment has betrayed their values or stripped them of rights and dignities, they shouldn’t have to participate in said system.
Trump also has a few advantages- the fact that Hillary will not and cannot win without super delegates is a huge boon for him. He did in fact eliminate sixteen competitors- including the popular Rubio, Bush and Cruz. His party desperately tried to get a brokered convention, and failed before the final primaries. Clinton has not managed to shake her one real opponent. She could not, like he did, get the nomination by pledged delegates alone. He will argue that to voters that this is a sign of his strength and prowess, and her relative weakness as a candidate. How effective will it be? Time will tell.
The divide between Bernie’s Progressive Dems, high off the reality that Democratic Socialist policies such as universal healthcare and an end to private prisons can be reality, and Clinton’s moderate Dems who aren’t bothered by interventionist military strategies and don’t want public post-secondary at the expense of higher taxes, is nothing new. It’s not Sanders fault. There have always been Democrats deeply troubled by the role of massive corporations in politics and wanting the nation to adopt more programs offered in Europe and Canada. But his campaign highlighted these differences, and sparked a passion in demographics who were typically less informed of the darker side of the Democratic Party (like low income households and millennials). He can concede. He can end his campaign. He can endorse Hillary Clinton. But these differences remain- and now that they’re central to the debate, they aren’t going away.
Sadly, as the race began wrapping up, Hillary must have gotten cocky, or nervous, or both. Donald became the presumptive, uncontested nominee, and Hillary no longer seemed keen on trying to win over Sanders’ voters. She began making appeals to Wall Street-remember, the people she was going to reign in?- and other conservatives, arguing that she was better candidate than Trump. Clinton made a political decision- to try and get moderates and conservatives rather than moderates and progressives. The reality is, she can’t get both. Yes, she will get some progressive support. But her choices- not Sanders, hers- will lead a lot of progressives astray. Not even the daunting idea of Trump will be enough to get them to polling stations. Remember, America already has low voter turnout. People are pretending it’s insane, unrealistic and unheard of for people to simply not vote if they dislike the candidates- but people often stay home even for candidates they do like.
Clinton will also struggle to get conservative votes. She may soon be getting endorsements from both pundits and conservative public figures who are terrified of Trump. But the rich white men is suits have never truly represented the actual Republican voter population- mainly low income, moderate to low educated people. A stamp of approval from big shot Republicans may not be enough. They don’t trust her or like her- and even if you fully believe this lack of trust is unfounded, it’s hard to shake that persona after decades of it being reinforced.
Then, we have the FBI.
Hillary Clinton is being investigated by the FBI. She may face racketeering charges. Her charity, the Clinton Foundation, may be found to be a money laundering operation. She may face charges of negligence and endangering national security. We aren’t the FBI. We don’t quite know what’s happening beyond closed doors. But here’s what we do know.
We know that Hillary used a private server, a home computer, to send work e-mails. We know that this server lacked the protections of the computers the State Department offered. We know she may have used unprotected Internet connection abroad. We know that she was not honest when she said everyone in her department was aware of this. We know that she deleted 50,000 e-mails- she says all were personal, but we will never know. We know this use endangered national security- it simply wasn’t as safe as using a government server.
We know a major hacker claims to have hacked into her server. We know that she was being dishonest when she said she made this choice because she wanted to use one convenient device- because her e-mails were sent from multiple devices, including her tablet. We know her Department tried to get her to switch to a safer server, and she refused. We know she sent classified material, albeit the lowest classification of it.
Finally, we know that it is possible she did this with the direct intent to keep her correspondence from being archived- to be specific, she may have done it to avoid being transparent with the government about who she was talking to and what she was saying.
If she is indicted, that will be a Very Bad Thing. Even if she isn’t, it may hurt her. Sanders tactfully avoided criticizing her e-mail practices, and one of his first viral moments was his infamous “sick of hearing about your damn e-mails” line- but Trump won’t be so kind. Maybe, if she were running in 2020, it wouldn’t matter. This would be old news. But it won’t be in November.
So, what we are left with is two very weak nominees. Both are disliked. Both have divided support even within their own parties. Both don’t do well with young people. Both have scandal-worthy weaknesses. Some polls suggest a quarter of voters won’t even show up to vote.
Bernie, on the other hand, is well liked. His approval ratings are higher than any other candidates. He has support from moderates and progressives. He has overwhelming independent support (Independents make up more of the voter population than Republicans and Democrats, and often decide the outcome of elections). He’s not just the strongest candidate to beat Trump. He’s the only one guaranteed to. He appeals to Trump’s populist voters, but offers more experience and clearer, more educated stances and ideas. There are few if any Clinton supporters opposed to voting for him in November. Unlike Clinton, both his approval ratings and his national polling numbers keep rising.
Bernie is not expecting to win. He is not trying to prevent history from being made. He is trying to give Democrats an out- I believe him when he says he has respect for Clinton. The fact that he steered clear from her e-mails, her past health issues, Benghazi, her husband’s affairs (and rapes!) and other personal attacks proves it. However, this race will be tight. There’s no certainty that Clinton will become the President- unless the Internet conspiracists are correct and Trump is an elaborate plant set to quit the race to let the Queen be crowned unopposed (spoiler alert: he’s not, she won’t).
Between the fear of indictment to the fear of Trump, many in the Party are getting nervous. Sanders is offering an out to them- the 2016 election does not have to be between two of the most hated candidates of all time. It’s does not have to be a gamble. It doesn’t have to be an election where we hope Democrats beat Trump- it can be an election where we know they will.
So, before you accuse Bernie Sanders as being unable to accept the fact he lost, or trying to stand in the way of feminist history, remember that his goal from this point isn’t necessarily to win. It’s to give the Party a last chance at a certain victory in November- and an opportunity to allow this FBI thing to be swept under the rug rather than make the front page news around the world.
He’s not being desperate. He’s not being hopeful. He’s being cautious- because we should all be worried about the results of the general election.
