Trump’s speech on Monday night made clear that the United States is going to achieve peace in Afghanistan through victory. However, Trump didn’t mention how we’re going to win. “Our troops will fight to win. We will fight to win,” Trump said as if that were to explain anything.
This has been the same strategy in Afghanistan for almost two decades. America’s longest war, of 16 years, is far from defeated as the Taliban continues to gain ground. Not to mention the Afghan government is on the verge of collapsing and will continue to do so if the new American troops will limit the Taliban to the territory they have seized.
The Taliban has killed government soldiers and policemen, proving it is at the highest rate of the war. It is estimated, (by General Qahraman), that rebels control 60 percent of the country, and that the Taliban control 35 percent.
Meanwhile, the Taliban is perceiving the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria as a rival, and they feel forced to adapt to more extreme uses of violent ideologies.
So, Trump’s mentioning of defeat and victory stands unclear but very repetitive in his speech. What Trump seems to also not understand or be clear on is the fact that Afghanistan is not like it was when Bush or even Obama was in Office. Afghanistan will not surrender and has proven to be immune to sanctions, even worse than the sanctions when Afghanistan was developing nuclear weapons.
If anything, the war will be fought for another 16 years. Trump also said that the U.S. would put more pressure on Pakistan to crackdown on the terrorist safe havens that are in line with the border in Afghanistan. Pakistan has a powerful ally in China. Analysts believe that Trump’s mentioning of Pakistan in his speech isolates Pakistan, and could unsettle any US and Pakistan relations. Which could then push it closer to Russia and Iran, which would only further any efforts to stabilise the region… and make the situation in Afghanistan much worse.
Ironically, Trump has talked with President Ashram Ghani about the opportunities for American mining companies in Afghanistan, according to the New York Times. It is estimated that Afghanistan’s mineral deposits are valued at as much as $1 trillion. When Obama was president, President Ghani combatted the development of the mining industry, because of the threat of widespread corruption. However, as soon as Trump was elected, Ghani reversed this and contacted the Trump team. This promoted Afghanistan’s mineral wealth and made Trump intrigued by the commercial possibilities… according to the same New York Times report.
Trump’s confusing and contradictory use of military in Afghanistan could create a much-worsening version of the war. This means more killing and more problems for the Afghan people and nation. What Trump emphasised in his speech was the win of the military. If a military win was a solution to the war, this should’ve happened already within the 16 years.
