JOE BIDEN IS THE NEXT UNITED STATES PRESIDENT
Written on November 7th at 11:38 EST
Former Vice President Joe Biden is now the 46th president of the United States. Biden’s victory makes Trump the first one term president in around thirty years.
Joe Biden’s lead took shape as Pennsylvania and Georgia flipped blue over the course of the last day. We give him the win in Pennsylvania as he surpassed Trump by over 30,000 votes, with mostly blue areas left to count.
Congratulations, President elect Joe Biden.
Looking At the Election Results This Morning: A Comprehensive Overview of Yesterday
Written on November 5th, 11:02am EST
I waited a night to share these updates with you all because I wanted to be sure that the election information I was spreading was accurate. Though Arizona was confirmed by the AP during my coverage on Tuesday Night, I decided not to break the story, because I was unsure about the election.
I’m going to guide everyone through how to look at the election, looking at where exactly we are now.
On Tuesday Night, we witnessed two phenomena, a red mirage and a blue mirage. These illusions would make people guess either Donald Trump or Joe Biden were ahead in a comfortable margin in any of these states. I even fell for one, when talking about Biden’s promising lead in North Carolina.
But, I wanted to first talk about what this red mirage meant for Donald Trump’s team and his re-election effort. First, on the topic of Michigan and Wisconsin, where Trump saw leads all throughout Tuesday night. This was largely in part due to GOP established state laws in both of these states, which blocked individuals from opening any mail in or absentee ballots until election night. These mail in ballots then made waves in Detroit, shooting Biden into the lead easily in Michigan. They also made waves in the Wisconsin Democratic stronghold of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, winning Wisconsin for former Vice President Joe Biden. Wisconsin is in recount territory.
The Red Mirage phenomenon has also occurred in Georgia, where President Trump saw a massive decrease as ballots from Atlanta and other liberal areas started to come in. Most notably, a pipe leakage in a blue Georgia area prevented many ballots from coming in. Georgia will likely be in recount territory. The Red Mirage is also tightening Trump’s 500k vote lead in Pennsylvania, which has shrunk to nearly a 2% lead. Pennsylvania counts mail in ballots last and so far, they are on a very blue trajectory, likely propelling Biden to a victory.
The Blue Mirage is occurring in two places: North Carolina and Arizona. North Carolina has been steadily on the decline since election day, but may see a small number of Democratic increases from late ballots, though it likely wouldn’t be enough. Arizona is seeing a blue mirage too because many voters drove to polling places to drop their ballots off on election day, so the mix has been less blue than previously expected. However, there may be just enough ballots for former Vice President Joe Biden to hold a lead in the state.
Nevada is releasing its next batch of results this morning and these ballots may lean red. However, ballots from Clark County, one of the most populous counties in the state, lean blue and might be released later on.
President Donald Trump faces a tight reelection path, one that involves him hanging on to two red-mirage phenomena- Pennsylvania and Georgia. He also needs to benefit from the blue mirage in Arizona. If these paths don’t occur (which is unlikely, since Pennsylvania seems comfortably in Biden’s camp) then Trump likely cannot win.
If Biden wins Pennsylvania, he can lose Arizona (though it has been called by the AP) and still win the presidency, since he managed to win back both of the blue wall states Hillary Clinton held back in 2016. Biden is also comfortably ahead in the popular vote, holding a >50% margin, which is good news for the Vice President.
Minor Updates: Nebraska 2 has gone to Joe Biden, a district that hasn’t gone to a Democrat since Obama in 2008. With the addition of Nebraska 2, Joe Biden can lose Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia, as a combination of Arizona and Nevada would be enough to place him at exactly 270. Maine 2 has gone to Donald Trump, which was expected but doesn’t really boost him in any way.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 253
President Donald Trump: 214
Big News: Texas and Florida go to Trump
Written on November 4th 2020, 330am EST
Trump has gotten Texas (as expected) and Florida, which was actually favored to lean towards Joe Biden this election. The Florida win moves Trump’s re-election chances up much more. Trump and Biden are now virtually tied.
As the night goes on, I will not be reporting on any further results. I will continue updating this thread in the coming days as we get confirmations from important states like Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania (as well as Georgia). The races are all still tight in these states, with Biden at a slight advantage due to mail in voting.
Florida going to Trump is a massive win for the President, who needs the state to win re-election.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 223
President Donald Trump: 213
Minnesota Goes to Joe Biden
Written on November 4th, 2020, 1216 am EST
The AP has just declared former Vice President Joe Biden as the winner in Minnesota. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had former Vice President Joe Biden leading with a comfortable margin at 96%.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 223
President Donald Trump: 119
Hawaii Goes To Joe Biden
Written on November 4th, 2020, 1210 am EST
The AP has just declared former Vice President Joe Biden as the winner in Hawaii. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had former Vice President Joe Biden leading with a comfortable margin at >99%.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 213
President Donald Trump: 119
Utah Goes For President Trump
Written on November 3rd, 2020, 11:14 EST
The AP has just declared President Donald Trump as the winner in South Carolina. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had President Trump leading with a comfortable margin at 95%. Utah has been a Republican stronghold and was likely to stay that way.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 209
President Donald Trump: 119
Expected Blue States, Red States Come in at 11PM Mark
Written on November 3rd at 8:08pm EST
For Joe Biden: Expected states include California, Oregon and Washington
For Donald Trump: Expected states include Idaho
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 209
President Donald Trump: 113
New Hampshire Goes to Joe Biden
Written on November 3rd, 2020, 11:01 EST
The AP has just declared former Vice President Joe Biden as the winner in state. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had former Vice President Joe Biden leading with a safe margin at 89%.
New Hampshire was a bit of a toss up, but skewed towards Joe Biden in the final months of the race.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 135
President Donald Trump: 109
Missouri Goes For Donald Trump
Written on November 3rd, 10:34 EST
The AP has just declared President Donald Trump as the winner in South Carolina. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had President Trump leading with a comfortable margin at 94%.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 131
President Donald Trump: 109
Colorado Goes For Biden
Written on November 3rd, 9:39pm EST
The AP has just declared former Vice President Joe Biden as the winner in Virginia. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had former Vice President Joe Biden leading with a comfortable margin at a 97% chance.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 131
President Donald Trump: 93
DC Comes in Strong For Biden, as Expected
Written on November 3rd at 9:30pm EST
DC, as expected, has come in strong for Biden. This adds an additional 3 electorate votes for Joe Biden.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 122
President Donald Trump: 93
6PM Expected Red and Blue States Come In
Written on November 3rd at 9:08pm EST
For Joe Biden: Expected states include New Mexico, New York
For Donald Trump: Expected states include North Dakota, South Dakota, Louisiana, Wyoming, Nebraska (-2nd District)
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 119
President Donald Trump: 93
North Carolina Looking Favorable For Biden, Good Early Signs
Written on November 3rd at 8:42pm EST
With around 68% of the votes reporting, Biden is leading Trump by nearly 268,000 votes. This is an important vote for Biden, who is trailing in both Florida and Georgia.
Analysts project that Biden needs to win Florida, Georgia or North Carolina. If he wins one of these three states, he is highly favored to win the election. North Carolina’s large blue lead is so far optimistic for what has been a rough start to Biden’s election effort.
Arkansas Goes to Trump
Written on November 3rd at 8:33pm EST
The AP has just declared President Donald Trump as the winner in Arkansas. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had President Trump leading with a comfortable margin at 99%.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 85
President Donald Trump: 72
Florida Not Looking Good For Biden, Trump May Win in Sunshine State
Written on November 3rd at 8:14pm EST
Joe Biden needed a large head start in Florida, one that he is not getting. As the panhandle trickles into Florida, Joe Biden will start trailing by even more. This aligns closely with polls from ABC, which had Trump at +2 in the last few days. However, for most polling, the Florida race makes many polls inaccurate.
If Donald Trump wins Florida, his election chances will significantly increase. With a more conservative panhandle coming in, Joe Biden may not be able to win the Sunshine State. This does not put him out of the running but means he must secure Georgia, North Carolina or Pennsylvania to have a good chance.
Expected Blue States, Red States Come in at 8PM Mark
Written on November 3rd at 8:08pm EST
For Joe Biden: Expected states include Illinois, Maryland, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware, New Jersey and Maryland.
For Donald Trump: Expected states include Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Oklahoma.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 85
President Donald Trump: 66
South Carolina Goes to Donald Trump
Written on November 3rd at 8:05pm PST
The AP has just declared President Donald Trump as the winner in South Carolina. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had President Trump leading with a comfortable margin at 90%.
Jim Clyburn won his South Carolina House Race as well, a big win for the Representative.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 16
President Donald Trump: 33
South Carolina Goes to Donald Trump
The AP has just declared President Donald Trump as the winner in South Carolina. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had President Trump leading with a comfortable margin at 90%.
Jim Clyburn won his South Carolina House Race as well, a big win for the Representative.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 16
President Donald Trump: 33
Virginia Goes to Joe Biden
Written on November 3rd at 7:39pm EST
The AP has just declared former Vice President Joe Biden as the winner in Virginia. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had former Vice President Joe Biden leading with a comfortable margin at a >99% chance.
This is a crucial state for Joe Biden and is critical to his win.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 16
President Donald Trump: 24
West Virginia Goes to Donald Trump
Written on November 3rd at 7:11pm EST
The AP has just declared President Donald Trump as the winner in West Virginia. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had President Trump leading with a comfortable margin at >99%.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 3
President Donald Trump: 24
Vermont Goes To Joe Biden
Written on November 3rd, 2020 at 7:09pm EST
The AP has just declared former Vice President Joe Biden as the winner in state. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had former Vice President Joe Biden leading with a comfortable margin at a >99% chance.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 3
President Donald Trump: 19
Indiana, Kentucky, Early Wins For Trump:
Written on November 3rd, 7:00pm EST
The AP has just declared President Donald Trump as the winner in Indiana. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had President Trump leading with a comfortable margin at 96%. Indiana hosts a total of 11 electoral votes.
The AP has just declared President Donald Trump as the winner in Kentucky. Prior to a declaration of victory in the state, polls had President Trump leading with a comfortable margin at 99%. Kentucky hosts a total of 8 electoral votes.
These two states were both decisive victories for Trump and are must haves for his path to 270. These were expected losses for Joe Biden, as they are both more rust belt territory states.
Electoral College Counter (270 to win)
Former Vice President Joe Biden: 0
President Donald Trump: 19
The States to Watch Tonight
Written on November 3rd, 1:30 pm EST
The biggest state to watch tonight will be Pennsylvania, a state which swung narrowly for President Donald Trump in 2016. If President Trump wins Pennsylvania yet again, he will have a significantly higher projected chance of winning in the general election.
However, this year, states that have been traditionally red, including Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas will all be ones that are up for grabs. Georgia also hosts two crucial Senate races, which will be covered on a different thread.
Florida is poised to go to Joe Biden tonight. However, if Trump loses Florida, his chances at an election go with it. Likewise, if Texas turns blue (which is unlikely, but possible) Trump will also have no chance at an election victory.
States like Michigan and Wisconsin, which flipped surprisingly in 2016 towards Trump, are expected to go to Biden this year, by much higher margins in most polling. Arizona, which has grown in its suburban population since 2016, is expected to potentially tilt blue. North Carolina is in the same boat as Arizona.
Ohio and Iowa are expected to stay red and must do so if Trump is to declare victory. Both races in these two states are tight.
Pre-Election Expectations
Written on November 2nd, 11:13 pm EST
Welcome to Affinity Magazine’s 2020 live election updates! I will be reporting on state polling results as they are released, keeping track of swing states, and adding up the electoral college count. More in-depth election analysis pieces will follow, but check back here for the latest election updates as former Vice President Joe Biden and President Donald Trump face off.
Currently, most polling indicates former Vice President Joe Biden holds a comfortable 10 point margin. Most polls have Biden above 50%, a number that 2016 Democratic Nominee Hillary Clinton did not cross. FiveThirtyEight estimates Biden has an 89/100 chance at winning the election, with Trump at a 10/100 chance. This differs from its 2016 estimate that favored Hillary Clinton with a 71/100 chance at the election.
The states to watch tonight will be as follows: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is the key state in this election.
The candidate to hit over 270 electoral votes will be the one who will take office in January. If neither candidate passes 270 votes, the House will be making the choice.
Come along with me as I report on the national election. It’s going to be an interesting night.
Featured Image via Matteo Di Maio
