It was 1994 when Turkish President Erdogan won Istanbul for the first time and became the city’s mayor. Since then, he did not let anyone take Istanbul away from him. After becoming the single party ruler with AKP, he saw Istanbul as his castle. Erdogan governed the country from its capital, Ankara, but went for prayer in Istanbul.
Earlier this year, Turkey held a referendum to change its regime under the circumstances of a state of emergency. President Erdogan used every power he had to make people say “yes” to the new presidential system that would take Congress’s abilities away and make the President an untouchable political leader. Turkey’s third biggest party’s chairman and congressmen were in prison, among journalists, academics, soldiers and lawmakers.
Erdogan lost Istanbul for the first time since 1994 because of that referendum. He lost Ankara. He lost every town near the Aegean Sea. He lost the economy. Kurdish voters did not back Erdogan. The nationalist party MHP supported him but even their voters did not come out to say ‘yes’. His castle collapsed.
The ambiguous referendum gave him a political message: Nothing will ever be easy for him anymore. The world was excluding him. His old fellows from the E.U. and the U.S. were describing him as a dictator.
Actually, Erdogan had their support because of his visional political perspective. He was a part of an extremist religious movement before establishing AKP, but afterwards, his speeches were liberal and his party was promising good relationships with the West, even assuring an E.U. membership. They had liberals on their side and their intellectuals were declaring that it was possible to be religiously democratic.
Erdogan found himself in prison after reading a religious and nationalist poem by Ziya Gokalp. Amnesty and other human rights activists defended and supported Erdogan in trial. European leaders were friendly with him for years.
Staying in power gave him the self-confidence and his extremist blood exterminated his liberal allies. After the Gezi protests in 2013, no one who believed in freedom of speech, democracy, human rights and European values stood with him. He became a lone guy with a state’s power in his hands.
Since the declaration of the state of emergency, journalists have been imprisoned. Some human rights activists were described as “terrorists” and detained by the police. Ironically, some of them protected Erdogan when he was in prison years ago. Some journalists, writers and academics are living in exile.
Erdogan created a chaotic atmosphere. But it is not a sustainable governing model. The Turkish economy is suffering because of the political fluctuation.
To stay president, Erdogan will have to gain more than the 50% of the votes. Lately, surveys are showing that Erdogan and his party AKP are not as popular as they were before. They might lose the majority in the parliament after the upcoming polls in 2019. Can and will Erdogan have the votes?
That’s why he wanted mayors of Istanbul, Ankara and other cities mayors to resign. That’s why he is accusing his own party and establishing a younger movement: he knows that his term can come to an end. And if that day comes, his political career will also end.
Photo: AFP/Getty Images
